NEW MODELING PROJECTS that the coronavirus death toll in the U.S. will exceed 200,000 by November, but more than 45,000 lives could be saved if the vast majority of people wore masks in public.
The U.S. will see roughly 78,000 more coronavirus deaths from now until Nov. 1, bringing the death toll to 208,000, according to projections based on a respected model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The current death toll sits at 131,000.
[MAP: The Spread of Coronavirus]
News deaths would be reduced by nearly 60% and the overall death toll would be slashed to 163,000 if 95% of people wore masks while in public, the model projects. Mask use at that level would likely only occur through state or local mask mandates, Christopher Murray, the institute's director, told reporters Tuesday. Only a handful of states have instituted a mask mandate amid a recent surge in cases.
The model has a wide range, and forecasts that, while the 208,000-death figure is most likely, the U.S. could see from 186,000 deaths up to 244,541 by November, assuming that universal mask use is not a reality.
"We can now see the projected trajectory of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October," Murray said in a statement released with the new projections. "However, as we all have come to recognize, wearing masks can substantially reduce transmission of the virus. Mask mandates delay the need for re-imposing closures of businesses and have huge economic benefits. Moreover, those who refuse masks are putting their lives, their families, their friends, and their communities at risk."
The model assumes that most schools reopen in the fall and also assumes the reimposition of social distancing restrictions and lockdown measures in states where deaths reach a level of 8 per 1 million people. According to the projections, both Florida and Massachusetts are expected to reach that death rate.
In Florida alone, the total death toll is expected to reach nearly 17,500 by Nov. 1., but that figure drops to less than 10,000 if mask wearing becomes universal. The state's death toll currently sits at about 3,800, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations have been surging nationwide in the last month, especially in the South and Southeast. The forecast shows deaths increasing in many states in September due to seasonality.
Data shows that more cases are being detected in younger people, who are at a lower risk of death. But if the current surge in infections spreads to higher-risk populations, death toll projections could rise, the institute said.
The model previously predicted about 175,000 deaths through Oct. 1. Tuesday's projections are the first to be extended to November.
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